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Gold and OIL futures trading

moonshot 2004

I have been following this board for some time and there seems to be a building interest in

Gold and Oil stocks, you might also want to consider Trading commodity Gold and Oil Futures.

Futures are also a excellent way to hedge existing Stock positions. I have been trading futures for about 2 years, they are highly leveraged usually 20/1 ratio so they give a lot of bang for the buck.

I feel the Gold bull market is still in play, but we are under going a correction with support @ $430-435, Oil seems to have put in a near term corrective bottom, watch for the price per barrel to move up in anticipation of the coming cut in OPEC oil quota.

maxcore 2004

Do you run TA. on futures? and where do you go to do so? i am not a futures wiz but keep an eye on gold.

moonshot 2004

Yes TA is useful when trading futures, but much more important are market fundamentals, commodity futures react to under lying market conditions; like Crude oil futures are reacting righty now to up coming OPEC quota cuts. It is a supply demand situation.

maxcore 2004

Any word from OPEC on oil supply? i saw some gains today in oil stocks OXY, ATPG. the sector could slowly start to rebouncing. also, do you know anything about trading E-Minis? and what's the risk factor?

moonshot 2004

The word on OPEC is they intend to cut the oil quota by one millions barrels starting January-February '05. Oil looks to retest $50 in the near future.

E-minis trade just like regular futures, they have good volume. E-minis are 1/5 the size of regular futures. S&P 500 E-mini is $4000, the regular S&P futures contract is $20,000.

The risk factor in all futures trading is very high, you must watch the trade tick by tick, it requires your full attention as long as the position is open.

maxcore 2004

That's why i'm seeing oil stocks are starting to picking up momentum , Look at OXY and ATPG both are at one week highs , IVAN hasn't done anything in that sence yet but the stock has a very good momentum history, it sits still for a while then explodes in to a rally, i've traded it two months ago.

moonshot 2004

The Euro's decline versus the US dollar has intiated a sharp gold correction that is testing around $430 support. I'm staying on the sidelines until this correction plays out. Gold could test key support @$400 if the euro does not firm up.

There is also some concern about India and other area countries that are major gold net purchasers, being affected by the late Tsunami, and how this might affect future gold prices. Short term, funds that would have been used to buy gold maybe diverted to rebuild homes and business destroyed by the Tsunami.

maxcore 2004

I have a long-term stake at Rhodium, got in a few weeks ago right after sold out my Gold reseve. i'm trying to find a connection between these two metals, don't they anticipate each other on uptrend or downtrend?

I realise that Rhodium has nothing to do with Gold futures trading becouse it's not a liquiq commodity and it's not as speculative as Gold is but what do you think as far as relationship between these two?

I had my stake purchased at 1273. Now, when you looking at the chart below you could see how firm and steady its been holding up for the past few weeks, i consider this a consolidation period before it starts to move higher.

moonshot 2004

All precious metal commodies have benefited from the declining Dollar, including Rhodium.

I'm uncertain about any particular connection between Rhodium and Gold, except both have certain industrial and jewelry uses.

The chart looks strong for a continued rally in Rhodium, after this Euro-Dollar correction is over.

moonshot 2004

Oil could be in for sharp pull back after the January futures contract hit $49.50 earlier this Tuesday. Wednesdays oil Inventory Supply data will have some price impact. I'm bearish on oil this week.

Putin's is out to nationalize the Russia oil industry; Gazprom the state owned oil monoploy looks to be taking over Yugos soon. How this will effect oil prices is not clear yet.

maxcore 2004

Do you know what time they usually release the data on Wednesdays? I'll be paying closer attention to Oil sector next week, but not sure if will recommend any oil-stocks to buy before Wednesday.

moonshot 2004

Gold seesm to have put in a temporary bottom; underlying fundamentals continue weak in the dollar and show strength in the euro should give gold the power to test $430 this week.

Unless there is a change in Euro interest rates that make the euro less attractive, the Euro looks strong.

Recent USA fed interest rate hikes have boosted the dollar, but that is now priced into the market. I'm bullish gold.

Always have a entry and exit strategy for all commodity positions. I entered January gold long @ $427, I will sell at $430-31 or be stoped out @ $425. I'm bearish crude oil.

I entered February Crude short @49.05 will cover @48.60 or be stoped out @49.30

maxcore 2004

EURO does look strong but so does the Dollar. In fact, i think that Dollar will continue to rise pushing Gold lower for another week or two , better than expected news on consumer confidence and some other economic data including latest GDP numbers will take care of that. I'm remaining bearish on Gold but still bullish on Rhodium.

moonshot 2004

Very impresive move by rhodium up over 3% Today. What stocks or securities are reacting to this move up.

Regarding your prior question about the relationship between USA interest rates and the price of gold. A USA interest rate hike generally makes the Dollar more attractive to investors, therefore weaking demand for the Euro. Right now the POG (price of Gold) is heavily influenced by the Euro-Dollar values. When the Euro is going up it makes Gold inexpensive to those holding Euros, so they buy GOLD.

Gold Looks very weak for the short term as the Euro drops against a rebounding Dollar. Next support for Gold $400.

Oil continues it's decline, as OPEC declined to cut production, that along with warm weather forcasts for the USA look to drive crude down to test $45 support.

IF crude drops below $45 look for Opec to cut crude output to support prices.

maxcore 2004

3% a day rise for a basic material like Rhodium in my opinion is a pretty sweet jack. considering the fact that I've been flying this beauty since November and it's hasn't gone anywhere but up!

Rhodium is a very non-influential metal that's why it doesn't created a lot of fuss when it rises or declines, it's been widely used in the auto making industry.

I've read the article about plans of OPEC to keep supply of crude production unchanged but they didn't say that for sure, in fact most analysts predict higher price movement in the comming months.

moonshot 2004

I feel Oil futures are being affected by the Euro's rally vs the Dollar. However, Oil is double topping and may have a serious pull back here. I'm neutral on Crude right now. It's too dangerous to be long or short here.

moonshot 2004

Oil has topped for now, the fundementals say CRUDE must test support at $50.

Short oil Futures ....................but, be aware that speculators are controling the market for the near term,.... not supply and demand.

moonshot 2004

Crude futures look pretty strong. Oil stocks I'm not familar with. Be careful they could be topping out.

The Euro is pulling back and could effect both Gold and Crude futures. I'm on the sidelines on both for now.

moonshot 2004

The june Euro futures contract, gapped down below support of 133.106, causing a massive sell off of gold. Look for continued weakness in the euro, which will drive down gold.

Gold looks to be a buy when it hits 62% retracement level of it's feburary-march rally. I will buy gold at the 62% retracement price of around $425.00

maxcore 2004

Will depend on tomorrow's FED's meeting. right now, Gold's not hurting me at all, but i still dropped 50% of my stake at tonight's bid 131.34 just in case of lower opening tomorrow morning I'll be still coming out profitably , if it dropes below the price i bought it a month ago then i'm selling the whole thing off.

 
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